In the FCS Huddle: Spoilers ready to step up

NCAA Football Betting Lines

06/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are always teams that look like locks on paper.

You know, like France and Italy advancing to the knockout phase of the World Cup.

And that's the point. There are no sure things in sports.

The older we get, the more we realize that we should not be overly surprised by upsets and when favored teams fail to do what we expect of them - like win a championship.

Half of the FCS' 14 conferences appear to have definitive favorites this season, while the other half appear to be more up for grabs. The seven consensus picks would be Montana in the Big Sky Conference, Liberty in the Big South Conference, South Carolina State in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, Colgate in the Patriot League, Appalachian State in the Southern Conference, Stephen F. Austin in the Southland Conference and Prairie View A&M in the Southwestern Athletic Conference. All but Colgate is a defending champion.

There's a reason, however, why teams play the games. None of the other teams considered below those seven wants to hear it doesn't have a chance within their conference.

Below we list a potential spoiler or two from those seven conference that aren't planning to be second-best:

Big Sky

Montana (14-1, 8-0 in 2009) has won at least a share of the conference title in 12 straight seasons, but lost a number of key players. Eastern Washington (8-4, 6-2) banks its hope on the conference's best defensive player (linebacker J.C. Sherritt), perhaps the conference's best offensive player (running back Taiwan Jones) and the conference's most influential transfer (quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell from SMU). The Eagles host Montana on their new red turf Sept. 18. Montana State (7-4, 5-3) ends the regular season on Nov. 20 at Montana. The Bobcats' offensive and defensive lines are experienced, and they have excellent special teams, including place-kicker Jason Cunningham.

Big South

Liberty (8-3, 5-1) averaged 36.4 points per game to lead the FCS last year. But Charleston Southern (6-5, 4-2) has a defense led by defensive end Joel Walton and cornerback Chris Kuzdale, a balanced offense and experience in its special teams. The Buccaneers played nail-biters in their conference losses to Gardner-Webb and Liberty last season. They visit Liberty on Oct. 9.

MEAC

South Carolina State (10-2, 8-0) is probably the nation's biggest favorite for a conference title because it won every MEAC game by double-digits last season and returns a veteran team. But Florida A&M (8-3, 6-2) should be strong offensively with a solid line, two potential quarterbacks in Eddie Battle and Martin Ukpai, and running back Philip Sylvester. The Rattlers host South Carolina State on Oct. 2. One week later, the favored Bulldogs host Norfolk State (7-4, 5-3), which won its final four games and have the conference's most productive returning back, DeAngelo Branche, who will operate behind an experienced line. Either Chris Walley or Jake Strickler, a pair of junior college transfers, figures to be the starting quarterback.

Patriot

Some team will have to slow Colgate (9-2, 4-2) and its high-powered offense. For a change, defending champion Holy Cross (9-3, 5-1) is strongest on defense with the return of defensive end Mude Ohimor and safety Anthony DiMichele. However, the Crusaders, who visit Colgate on Oct. 23, have lost four-year starting quarterback Dominic Randolph. Lehigh (4-7, 4-2) wants to win for struggling coach Andy Coen (20-24 in four seasons) and has an excellent quarterback in J.B. Clark, who works behind a line that features standout tackle Will Rackley. After hosting Colgate on Oct. 30, the Mountain Hawks play their final three league games on the road.

Southern

Appalachian State (11-3, 8-0) reached the FCS semifinals last season and has one of the more talent-laden rosters in the nation. Elon (9-3, 7-1) will likely have to win in Boone, N.C., to make it a race. The Phoenix have a quarterback, senior Scott Riddle, who also has thrown for 10,003 yards and 78 touchdowns in his career. Middle linebacker Joshua Jones fuels the defense.

Southland

Stephen F. Austin (10-3, 6-1) has all the pieces in place for another banner season, but McNeese State (9-3, 6-1) has the type of defense that can stand up to the Lumberjacks, including defensive tackle Desmund Lighten and free safety Malcolm Bronson. The Cowboys visit SFA on Oct. 9. Texas State (7-4, 5-2) has a defense that already has stood up to SFA, winning 28-7 last season. The Bobcats are still waiting to see if two-time 1,000-yard rusher Karrington Bush will be eligible this season, but they definitely will have standout wide receiver Da'Marcus Griggs and linebacker Marcus Clark. They visit SFA on Oct. 30.

SWAC

Prairie View A&M (9-1, 7-0) came within three points of FBS New Mexico State, and a perfect season, last fall. But the Panthers can't forget that until their three-point win over Grambling State (8-5, 6-3), they hadn't beaten the Tigers since 1986. The Tigers have perhaps the most intimidating defensive player in the FCS in defensive end Christian Anthony. They're still awaiting word on whether quarterback Greg Dillon will be granted a sixth year of eligibility, but will have two quality returning backs in Frank Warren and Cornelius Walker. Their all-important meeting with Prairie View is Sept. 25 in Dallas.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.