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09/10/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's a mantra of every NFL season.
Regardless of how awful a team plays in the first three months of a given 16- game schedule, a strong finish in the final four of five weeks earns the label of "one to watch" the following year.
No matter that encore seasons begin nine calendar months later, and, in an age of unfettered player movement, a roster in September can be markedly changed from its December predecessor.
So what ... it makes for good copy.
Testing the tenuous axiom for 2010 will be the Cleveland Browns.
Last season - their first in the iron grip of head coach/secret-keeper Eric Mangini - the Browns lost four games, won one and lost seven more to find themselves 1-11 by Dec. 7.
But then, it seems, the "Man Genius" in Mangini took over.
Rather than cementing their status over the final four games and locking up a crack at Sam Bradford with the No. 1 overall draft pick, the Clevelanders rocked the AFC house with consecutive beatings of Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Oakland and Jacksonville.
The result in April - pick No. 7 (Florida CB Joe Haden) instead of pick No. 1 (Bradford).
The result in September - at least one analyst (New Orleans-based Ralph Malbrough) sees the Browns as a playoff dark horse.
"In November everyone will be saying, 'I can't believe team X is 7-5 and fighting for a playoff spot. Who saw that coming?' The Browns will be that team," said Malbrough, a football analyst for WWLTV.com.
"Cleveland Browns fans watched the New Orleans Saints just win the Super Bowl. If watching the Saints win a Super Bowl doesn't make you believe any team can turn themselves around then you simply don't believe in the impossible."
It's seems 1/16th less impossible when viewing their initial opponent.
In Tampa Bay, the Browns face one of six teams that picked before them in April's selection circus (Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy) and one that was just average enough - 2-2 in the final four games after an ugly 1-12 start - to cede the September surprise moniker for this season.
Quarterback Josh Freeman showed glimpses of promise while struggling through a rookie gauntlet with the Bucs, but a broken right thumb in this year's preseason - which limited him in the team's Wednesday practice session - hasn't helped generate much positive early spin.
"The Bucs' youth movement is far from finished," said Peter King of SI.com, "and we're still in the process of finding out if (head coach Raheem) Morris, 33, and general manager Mark Dominik, 38, have a plan that will produce incremental progress."
The Browns enter the season with the NFL's 10th-hardest schedule, which will see them play opponents who combined for a .516 winning percentage last season - including 11 teams who were .500 or better and seven playoff participants.
The Bucs, meanwhile, face the 25th-ranked schedule, consisting of foes with a .480 winning clip - 11 teams at .500 or better and five who reached the postseason.
SERIES HISTORY
Cleveland has a 5-2 edge in its all-time series with Tampa Bay, though the losses have come in each of its last two meetings with the Buccaneers. The Bucs were 22-7 road winners when they last faced the Browns, in 2006, and took a 17-3 decision when Cleveland last visited Tampa Bay in 2002. The Browns won the first five installments in the series, with their most recent win coming at home in 1995. The Browns, who last won in Tampa in 1989, are 3-1 there all- time.
The Browns' Mangini and Buccaneers' Morris will be meeting each other, as well as their counterpart's respective teams, for the first time as head coaches.
WHEN THE BROWNS HAVE THE BALL
Bucking the youthful trend, veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme makes his Browns debut against a team he saw frequently during his stint in Carolina. Delhomme is 9-2 as starter against the Bucs and has completed 181-of-297 passes for 2,228 passing yards versus Tampa. The former Super Bowl participant is 108 passing yards shy of 20,000 for his career. In the backfield, running back Jerome Harrison averaged 111.1 yards per game in seven starts and can continue a stretch that saw him finish with three straight triple-digit games in 2009 and five touchdowns. On the outside, wide receiver/kick returner Joshua Cribbs posted 2,510 combined yards last season - fifth-best in NFL history - and became the first player to reach 1,000 return yards in his first five seasons. Fellow big-play wideout Mohamed Massaquoi averaged 18.4 yards per catch as rookie, hauling in 34 passes for 624 yards. Lastly, another veteran, ex- Patriots tight end Ben Watson, makes his Cleveland debut.
Morris and Co. have quite a task in resurrecting the Bucs defense to its Super Bowl level of not so long ago. Tampa Bay was a minus-5 in turnover ratio last season and allowed an average of 365.6 total yards per game. The Bucs surrendered 30 or more points five times in their 13 losses, but, on a positive note, not one time after a 38-7 loss to New Orleans on Nov. 22. The aforementioned McCoy makes his NFL regular season debut on the front line, where he's expected to solidify a run-stopping unit that was 32nd in the league in 2009. End Stylez G. White was the team leader with 6.5 sacks, while linebackers Barrett Ruud and Geno Hayes return after recording career-bests of 143 and 98 tackles, respectively. Ruud has led the team in tackles for three straight seasons. In the backfield, ageless cornerback Ronde Barber is one of just two players in league history with 25 or more sacks and 30 or more interceptions. He started all 16 games for the 10th straight season in 2009 and has scored 13 career touchdowns. The Bucs will be without corner Aqib Talib, who is serving a one-game suspension for a violation of the NFL personal conduct policy.
WHEN THE BUCCANEERS HAVE THE BALL
Much will depend on the health of Freeman, the lanky Kansas State alum who started nine games and won two of his last three to close out 2009. He completed 158-of-290 throws for 1,855 yards and 10 touchdowns in year No. 1, but also threw 18 interceptions and racked up an unseemly 59.8 QB rating. He will be buoyed with a few more options this season, including rookie wideouts Arrelious Benn (Illinois) and Mike Williams (Syracuse), who've warranted rave reviews during training camp. Among the holdovers are former Browns draft pick Kellen Winslow, who caught 82 passes for 1,106 yards for Cleveland on the way to the Pro Bowl in 2007 and had a Tampa Bay tight end record 77 catches and 884 yards last season. Wideout Maurice Stovall had a pair of catches for 45 yards in his lone career meeting with the Browns, but is a question mark due to an ankle issue. On the ground, running back Cadillac Williams is back after a team-high 823 yards and four TDs in 2009.
The defensive backfield for Cleveland features the most changes, including the arrival of rookie cornerback Haden from a successful collegiate stint with the Gators and the signing of cornerback Sheldon Brown, who had a career-best five interceptions last season with Philadelphia. Holdover corner Eric Wright had a career year last season as well with four interceptions. Up front, the Browns were molded to Mangini's hard-edged, pressure-the-offense mentality, recording 40 sacks. Linebacker Scott Fujita was a spotlight offseason acquisition after winning a Super Bowl with the Saints last season. He had 58 tackles and one sack with New Orleans. Also on the linebacker corps are Chris Gocong (44 tackles, one sack) and Matt Roth (32 tackles). Up front, Cleveland features a personnel grab-bag with Shaun Rogers (36 tackles, 2 sacks), Kenyon Coleman (38 tackles, 1.5 sacks), and Robaire Smith (62 tackles, 1.5 sacks).
FANTASY FOCUS
The Browns have the weapons in this one, most notably Cribbs and his big-play ability at wideout. Harrison should be good for 100 on the ground as well against the remnants of a porous 2009 run defense. A gritty Browns defense is also a better play against an inexperienced Freeman with an iffy throwing hand.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Say what you will about dark horse projections and the pertinence in September of momentum generated last December, the bottom line here comes down to talent - which the Browns have more of at nearly every important position. Over four quarters, that should offset the advantage of home opener enthusiasm at Raymond James.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Browns 24, Buccaneers 14
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BILLS (+10) at Steelers SPORTSBOOK LINES
It's impossible to gauge how a team will react after something like the Steve Everett situation, and it probably doesn't matter. That being said, the Bills are going to lose several games this year where they keep things close but fall short in the end to superior teams. Ben Roethlisberger and company could have a field day against Buffalo's decimated defense, but I like the Bills to cover.
BENGALS (-7) at Browns SPORTSBOOK LINES
All you can ask out of your NFL team is that it has a plan. You may not always agree with it as a fan, but as long as it appears the organization is going in some sort of direction, you have to go with it. Which brings us to the Cleveland Browns. You flip a coin to determine whether Chuck Frye or Derek Anderson should start the preseason opener. You start Frye in Week 1, but pull him in the first half. And then you deal him to the Seahawks for a sixth-round pick? Hmm... the Bengals could get six turnovers again this week.
COLTS (-7) at Titans SPORTSBOOK LINES
Tennessee signed ex-Colts cornerback Nick Harper in the offseason so that should help slow down Peyton Manning. Just ask Jason David and the Saints. Oh wait... One of these weeks, I'm going to learn to not pick against Tennessee, which has won seven of its last eight games. But it's not happening against Indy.
TEXANS (+6.5) at Panthers SPORTSBOOK LINES
Houston's Mario Williams, the first pick in the '06 draft, has more touchdowns than Reggie Bush after one week. Somehow I don't see that lasting. Meanwhile, Carolina bottled up what was expected to be a pretty high-octane offense in St. Louis in Week 1. Could this be the Panthers' defense everyone expected last year? Maybe. This feels like a 20-16 Carolina win.
RAMS (-3) vs. 49ers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Absolutely love this game. Everyone's favorite pick for this year's surprise team -- the 49ers -- laid an egg on Monday night (not that anyone was watching with the game ending in the middle of the night for those of us on the East Coast). St. Louis wasn't much better, delivering a lackluster effort against the Panthers that included two Steven Jackson fumbles and panic from his fantasy owners. Jackson rebounds this week, and the Rams get their first win.
PACKERS (+1.5) at Giants SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Do you really trust this guy to win an NFL game if Eli Manning can't go? I say no. I'd feel alot better about this Packers team if it had any semblance of a running game, but I still think Green Bay's defense is good enough to give it a 2-0 start.
JAGUARS (-10) vs. Falcons SPORTSBOOKS LINES
Does it scare me to pick Jacksonville to cover a double-digit spread after it scored just 10 points last week against the Titans? Absolutely. But can I bring myself to pick Atlanta under any circumstances? No. Check out this poll on ajc.com. It asks what Atlanta's most urgent deficiency is: offense, defense, specials teams or all of the above. "All of the above" has 57 percent of the votes. Ouch.
SAINTS (-3) at Buccaneers SPORTSBOOKS LINES
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DOLPHINS (+3.5) vs. Cowboys SPORTS BETTING LINES
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SEAHAWKS (-2.5) at Cardinals SPORTS BETTING LINES
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RAVENS (-10) vs. Jets SPORTS BETTING LINES
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Friends and I were discussing how Bill Belichick goes about paying his $500,000 fine for cheating. Does he just write one check to the NFL? Do you need some sort of clearance to make such a monstrous financial transaction? I guess I shouldn't complain about the security deposit I have to put down on my new apartment. Anyway, two of the league's best teams square off in what should be a good one Sunday night. The Patriots always respond well just when you think they're in trouble. And their offensive attack was the story in Week 1.
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting.
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